Introduction
The subject has been discussed for eons and has been flagged as an oft-committed flaw in thinking since time immemorial, yet binary bias in some or the other form suddenly appears before us routinely. Black and white thinking, all-or-nothing, catastrophising or trivialising, awsomising (well – there is no such word, but you know what I mean!) or awfulizing – just to name a few ways. It is perhaps the most frequent cause of adverse decision making that stands in the way of improvement.
But there is one thing that is perhaps worse than merely this hurdle. Consequent rationalisation and justification to oneself of black and white thinking with a trivialising remark to feel good, “That is the way the world works. After all we need the speed of work that black and white thinking gives us!”
It is as bad as putting one foot on accelerator and the other on brake pedal - both at the same time! There is a sound reason why one of the Toyota system principles is to take decisions slowly by building consensus and weighing all the possible options and implement them rapidly.
Why and how a hurdle
The reason is simple. The world has infinite number of grey shades. It is seldom purely black and white. Rarely just simply "perfect" or simply "useless". The ethos of continuous improvement or Kaizen or even agile methodologies entails “small steps.” Even if one is embarking on not Kaizen but Kaikaku or Kakushin – the popular step-change or project methodology or the innovative - transformational change programmes, miniaturised milestones are imperative – in fact inevitable.
Therefore, labelling something as utopia or panacea or discarding something as completely worthless at impulse (though naturally inspired) is detrimental to any desired change. By doing so, we either completely disregard a genuine improvement opportunity or defer solving a genuine problem because we develop an unrealistic faith in a non-existent panacea! (Often called a silver-bullet syndrome.)
Examples
Examples can be seen in every walk of management. A few perennial ones are from a variety of management functions.
A few extreme views I have seen more than once are on lean manufacturing, continuous improvement, or such other methodologies or even standards such as ISO9000. One view is often seen that these are just some buzzwords, and they hardly ever work. The other extreme is that once something such is embraced, it solves all the problems! All or nothing syndrome is not new either! Heard someone saying, “What is the point of lean now? Look – it fell apart when Covid struck the world!” Reminds me of the days when Toyota had to recall some Prius cars from market and that signaled to many skeptics that entire Toyota philosophy was not worth what was felt it was. An example of all-or-nothing thinking.
Another example comes from the extremity of wishful thinking. Worse – wishful thinking coupled with trivialisation. “Don’t you worry – I have done this so many times!” Personalisation plus trivialisation plus wishful thinking. Forebodes a mess or a disaster to follow, which, often, sure - does follow!
Operators’ involvement in conceptual discussions is another moot point often. “They don’t need to know the details – just ask them to follow the process.” That is one end. The other is “They are the ones who carry out the process. Leave it to them. Let them figure out.” This always brings to my mind an analogy of a doctor and a patient. Imagine – leaving something totally to the patients with the pretexts that they are the ones who are bearing all the pains! Or imagine the other end – “Patient does not need to know – just do it. Ask the patient to do as doctor says!” Equally impractical.
Kanban does not work, just the ERP we have should be enough x We need Kanban everywhere, these ERPs are no real.
5S not working – no 5S means we have the worst warehouse in the world. x 5S is a waste of time. It is a common sense. We do not need 5S.
The list can go on and on. The two ends I have most ubiquitously seen are:
1) Meetings are a waste of time – let us not waste our time; versus
2) We have poor communication, so we need to install meetings every day in every team and generate action plans and review minutes and follow up measures and … and … the list goes on.
Sometimes this experience turns comical when the same person inadvertently mentions these two things in a very general sense with different words at two separate times within the same organization not realising the irony within their own argument.
The reasons
The reason for binary bias is obvious. Decision making with binary bias is faster than that with a spectrum or gradient of possibilities evaluated thoroughly. It is mirrored in the basic instinct of flight or fight response – quickly. However, in the competitive world where precise evaluation is often a lot more important than speed and the decision making is not being done for “survival of the fittest” quest but rather “growth of the best” quest, it is best not to resort to binary bias when it is not necessary.
How to minimise binary bias
Binary bias can be best avoided, or at least minimised, by building awareness to start with. Most of the people commit black-and-white or yes-or-no thinking subconsciously. Making the group of people aware to start with of this risk itself helps in minimising it later. It is important to keep pointing out that not everything needs to be dichotomised.
There are a few methods that I have adopted over years.
1) Factorise the decision-making criteria. For example, for deciding if a daily or weekly meeting is required or not – analyse:
What the objectives are.
How one would see them being increasingly achieved.
What the different variables associated with the possible meeting are. These could be – for example – members, duration, location, and alternatives if the meeting is missed.
2) Draw up gradients: For example, rating the effectiveness of the meetings (1-10 scale – 1 being completely ineffective and 10 most effective) for review surveys can be helpful. Then such a rating can be collectively improved. That's what continuous improvement is! Avoid yes or no questions when the extent matters. This may not be always the case but often it is.
It’s not that binary bias is always bad. Sometimes it is indeed required for speed even at the cost of effectiveness. But then it must be a conscious decision to use it. Binary bias cannot be evaluated with binary bias just categorically as good or bad!
- Nilesh Pandit
11th October 2022
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